Severe Thunderstorm and Tornadic Activity
Since 1988, NASP has observed
a definite pattern to the severe thunderstorms that produce tornadoes.
The general scenario begins with an area or line of thunderstorms oriented
northeast to southwest, moving eastward with cell movement south to north.
This scenario will produce tornadic activity from large cells moving inland
from the Gulf.
The increase in friction overland may enable the thunderstorm
to produce the turning vortex that is necessary for tornadoes. In the northern
section of Perdido Bay, this same scenario will produce waterspouts that
will move inland. Saufley Field, located along the northeast shoreline
of Perdido Bay, should be watched closely during this type of thunderstorm
activity.
On 10 September 1996, a funnel cloud formed over the runways
at Sherman Field from a cumulonimbus cloud with a 3,000' base. Although
the funnel cloud never reached the ground, the rotating system remained
over the field for more than 15 minutes, but caused no damage.
The following indices should be used to evaluate thunderstorm
development, severity and potential tornadic activity:
Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE)
< 0 Stable
0 – 1000 Marginally unstable
1000 – 2500 Moderately unstable
2500 – 3500 Very unstable
3500 – 4000 Extremely unstable
Storm Relative Environmental Helicity (SREH)
150 The approximate threshold for supercell development
150 - 299 Weak Tornadoes (F0 and F1) possible
300 - 449 Strong tornadoes (F2 and F3) possible
>450 Violent tornadoes (F4 and F5) possible
Lifted Index (LI)
3 or less unstable to very unstable, strong thunderstorm
potential
Showalter Index (SI)
3- 1 Thunderstorm possible, strong trigger needed
0 – (-3) Unstable, Thunderstorms probable
(-4) – (-6) Very Unstable, heavy thunderstorm potential
< (-6) Extremely unstable, heavy to strong thunderstorm
potential
K Index (KI)
20 - 25 Isolated thunderstorms
26 - 30 Widely scattered thunderstorms
31 - 35 Scattered thunderstorms
35 and > Numerous thunderstorms
Total Totals (TT)
48 Scattered thunderstorms, isolated severe thunderstorms
50 Scattered thunderstorms, few severe thunderstorms,
isolated tornadoes
52 Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, few to scattered
severe thunderstorms, few tornadoes
56 Numerous thunderstorms, scattered severe thunderstorms,
scattered tornadoes
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